Lebanon in the shadow of the Gaza war
Summary: with a caretaker government and a wrecked economy
Lebanon can ill-afford another war between Hezbollah and the IDF but as
the Israelis pursue their destruction of Gaza the risk continues to
rise.
The death of a Lebanon Armed Forces soldier on 5 December at the
hands of an Israeli shelling in southern Lebanon prompted a quick and
rare apology from the IDF.
Earlier today, IDF soldiers operated in self defence to eliminate
an imminent threat that had been identified from Lebanon. The threat
was identified within a known launch area and observation point of the
Hezbollah terrorist organization, near al-Awadi. Hezbollah’s activities
in Lebanon are in clear violation of United Nations Security Council
Resolution 1701. The IDF was notified that soldiers from the Lebanese
Armed Forces were harmed during the strike. The Lebanese Armed Forces
were not the target of the strike. The IDF expresses regret over the
incident. The incident is under review
The statement and the speed with which it was delivered reflects
Israeli cognisance of the fragile state of Lebanese governance. The
country after a year of political squabbling still has no president
to replace Michel Aoun. Ministerial posts, including that of the prime
minister, Najib Mikati, are serving in acting positions and Hezbollah
continues as the single most cohesive and dominant political force even
as it and the IDF continue to trade fire across the border. It was in
such a skirmish that the soldier was killed and three of his colleagues
wounded.
UNSC Resolution 1701
was passed after the 2006 war between Israel and Hezbollah which in a
little more than a month of fighting did huge damage to South Lebanon.
The war also proved damaging to the reputation of the IDF. 1701 was
agreed within 48 hours by both the Israelis and Hezbollah and called
for:
The full cessation of hostilities, the deployment of Lebanese
forces to Southern Lebanon, parallel withdrawal of Israeli forces behind
the Blue Line, strengthening the UN force (UNIFIL) to facilitate the
entry of Lebanese Forces in the region and the establishment of a
demilitarised zone between the Blue Line and the Litani River.
The resolution was never fully implemented and both sides have
regularly claimed the other has been in violation but the Gaza war and
Hezbollah’s responses are putting new strains on 1701. Israel, allegedly
backed by the US and the UAE,
is said to be demanding Hezbollah be pushed north of the Litani River
while Hezbollah is believed to have taken the position that the
resolution should be consigned to the past.
The veteran Lebanese Druze leader Walid Joumblatt, a backer of Hezbollah, in an interview with L’Orient Today argued that now was not the time for Lebanon to turn its back on 1701.
This is not the right time to call Resolution 1701 into question.
I am keen to make it clear that we are in favor of implementing this
resolution. But that depends on the opposing camp. We cannot simply ask
the residents of South Lebanon who are being bombarded daily not to
respond (and therefore to respect Resolution 1701), without asking
Israel to do the same. We are in favor of implementing the resolution,
but the opposing camp must also respect it.
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